Material Information

Title:
Meteorology
Creator:
SUNY Oswego
Steiger, Scott
Lynne, Matthew
Publisher:
SUNY Oswego
Publication Date:
Copyright Date:
2022

Notes

Abstract:
Presenter: Scott Steiger. Title: Insights from a National Weather Service Climate Observer. Abstract: ( ,,,, )
Abstract:
Presenter: Matthew Lynne. Title: An Analysis of the Weather Prediction Center’s Winter Storm Outlook in Low Probability Scenarios. Abstract: The Weather Prediction Center’s (WPC) Winter Storm Outlook (WSO), was developed in conjunction with National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) to help coordinate more consistent issuance and messaging of Winter Storm Watches. The WSO uses the WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecast (PWPF) guidance to output daily probabilistic guidance for winter storm snowfall and freezing rain criteria being met during a four day period throughout the lower 48. While this product has undergone testing for several winter seasons, this study will only focus on the period from October 1, 2020 through April 30, 2021. While the previous work regarding the WSO has shown that this product has the potential to be quite helpful for the various WFOs, there were instances throughout the period of study where storms were shown to have little to no probability of occurring on the WSO guidance. Many questions were raised as to why this occurred and whether there were any patterns that could be distinguished among these events. In general, it was found that due to the combination of high winds and low snowfall, blizzards tended to not show up well on the guidance as well as storms that tended to have greater overall uncertainty in the short and medium range. It will be important to take note of these types of events as the WSO moves towards operational implementation while highlighting areas where local expertise at the various WFOs can supplement the WSO guidance.

Record Information

Source Institution:
SUNY Oswego Institutional Repository
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